Ratings affirmation by ACRA
On September 12, 2022 Russian rating agency ACRA had affirmed the following ratings of the Republic of Belarus under the international scale:
– Long-term foreign currency credit rating at B+ and local currency credit rating at B+;
– Short-term foreign currency rating at B and local currency credit rating at B.
Positive rating assessment factors:
– high level of economic wealth,
– moderate public debt,
– deeper integration with Russia.
The rating agency predicts a decline in Belarus' GDP in 2022 at a faster rate than experts from the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus, due to a slowdown in economic activity in almost all sectors of the economy, but notes the presence of compensating factors: a decrease in imports and an increase in foreign investment. The negative impact of international sanctions on the economic potential, according to ACRA, is mitigated due to the expansion of the economic interaction of the Republic of Belarus with the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China and the transition to settlements in national currencies.
According to ACRA, the consolidated budget deficit this year may be larger than planned. The main factors are a decrease in tax revenues, primarily from foreign economic activity, an increase in social spending and spending on additional support for the economy.
The country's external debt is moderately declining, but at the same time ACRA analysts point to the limited access of Belarusian issuers to foreign markets and the narrowing of the base of international creditors.
ACRA notes that the temporary procedure for fulfilling external state debt obligations adopted by the government is the result of technical reasons due to sanctions restrictions and is not related to the creditworthiness of the Republic of Belarus. The level of public debt, according to analysts of the agency, remains moderate, and the risks of its refinancing are insignificant.